Predictions for 2019… and 2020

My crystal ball for 2018 predicted a “special season” for the Oakland Athletics. You’re welcome, East Bay. But this is East Bay politics, which in my experience, can throw you a heavy diet of curveballs. Here’s what I think might happen in 2019, in addition, to a pair of early 2020 predictions.

Accomplishments be damned, Rep. Eric Swalwell is going to run for president. But, why not? Forget the snide questions about what is wrong with his face and a deep suspicion that he wears four inch shoe lifts, I predict he will do well. Granted, he will have no money. Heck, there’s probably four other candidates in California alone that will attract contributors over Swalwell. He’ll have the benefit of low-to-no expectations and will flourish starting during the debates sometime in the mid-year. It might even benefit him greatly to be stuffed in a debate with also-rans. Basically, he’s going to run like he did against Pete Stark. New energy, new voice. I’m young. Blah, blah, blah. But he’s also going to be divisive. Check out how he’s baiting guns rights people on Twitter. However, with success will come scandal. Remember he used to be a young congressional bachelor.

We’ll continue to run in circles when it comes to a wholesale push for new affordable housing in the East Bay. It will continue to be all talk until even modest housing proposals comes to any city council in the East Bay. After the results of the last election, local officials were shown that backing new housing in places outside of Oakland will get you un-elected. Thing won’t change until public officials show leadership and tell–not ask–residents that we’re all in this together and we need to all do our part.

Oakie-DokieOakland Mayor Libby Schaaf’s new 2019 catchphrase

Some people think Alameda County Supervisor Nate Miley will retire before 2020. I’ll go with the surprise retirement–Supervisor Wilma Chan. I’m more confident about Hayward Assemblymember Bill Quirk hanging them up. Be aware that the 2020 primary is moving from June to early March. So, if any retirements are imminent, expect the announcements coming earlier than normal.

If Quirk retires, new Hayward Councilmember Aisha Wahab will be the front runner to replace him if she can convince labor. There’s a dearth of competent individuals in the 20th Assembly District. Wahab, as a former Fremont resident, is the only candidate who can link the district’s biggest areas together…

Former Alameda County Supervisor Nadia Lockyer makes periodic and scary reintroductions into our world of politics, even though she now lives in Southern California. I think she’ll post something on Facebook this year that brings equal parts fear and titillation…

Oakland Mayor Libby Schaaf often coins catchphrases that could only make 50-year-old dads proud. I predict “Oakie-Dokie.” …

Even though the truth will later come out that State Sen. Nancy Skinner forgot her iPhone and accidentally stumbled on San Leandro, which is in her district, she will make one other appearance. However, in her mind, she can’t fathom why there is a San Leandro and San Lorenzo right next each other. How confusing!…

Once Swalwell is president, Alameda County Supervisor Scott Haggerty will replace him in Congress. His tenure will last one month after he is caught on a hot mic calling the House speaker Nancy “Peloser.” His chief of staff Shawn Wilson will replace him. He also comes under fire for calling a constituent a “motherf***king Livermore redneck” during a town hall. At another in Dublin, he quips, “There’s a reason why they built the jail in Dublin.”

Ohio Sen. Sherrod Brown will win the California presidential primary in March 2020…

Here’s a twist on the attention Swalwell will get in 2019: It will be East Bay Rep. Ro Khanna, not Swalwell, who is the big winner in the end. That’s because Khanna will be on the list of potential vice president nominees. He won’t get it, though. The course, though, is set for the statesman to later be known as the “East Bay’s Abraham Lincoln.”

One thought on “Predictions for 2019… and 2020

  1. Smallwell: He will do well until the first exposures of who he really is. He has skated with the media, no doubt because he is not nearly as interesting as Pete Stark was. Soon the dirt will all come out and he will be relegated to the other limp d?cks in Congress.

    Housing. You are spot on here. Gentrification is the solution to all politicians goals in life. Increased Housing Revenue, Increased Union Work, Increased Minimum Wage. Increased Real Estate sales. This is the home of the Democratic Party and the various diverse community leaders who have arisen throughout the East Bay. No one wants low income housing in their Neighborhood. They do want good roads, Free Childcare, Single Payer Health, Livable Wage, Safe Water, Safe Neighborhoods & Gun Control. These are the core values of the Democratic Party and the Progressives. No one wants more BART crime.

    Aisha is the natural successor to Quirk. She has already begun to get the Union Support. Quirk contributed $1,000 of his money to her campaign late, along with $8,346 from 8 local Unions. 13 wealthy Afghanis and Aisha contributed $19,243 to her campaign. This is not to say that the balance of her support came the poor, for the rest came from the Afghan community, not the grass roots support of the poor and oppressed. I am sure that she will choose to follow Bill to the Assembly and from there to Washington. She is a very attractive future for California.

    Wilma Chan and Nate Miley will make room for future Progressives. This past year has been about building their bench in their base. It will make for a most enjoyable 2019-2020 season. Maybe Nadia will move back in to replace run in the upcoming Alameda County Supervisor openings. She could go in to Oakland to liven up the city with the passing of Desley Brooks. She could give Libby a real push on quotability. And where is Mary Hayashi when you need her?


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