Poll: Alameda County supervisors race is a four-way statistical tie

Alameda County District 1 supervisorial candidates at a forum in Pleasanton earlier this month.

An internal poll conducted earlier this month by Alameda County supervisorial candidate Melissa Hernandez’s campaign reveals all four candidates in the District 1 are in a statistical dead-heat with just one week before vote-by-mail ballots begin appearing in mailboxes.

The executive summary of the poll, obtained by the East Bay Citizen, also shows voters in the Tri-Valley and Fremont supervisorial district are not familiar with any of the four candidates. In addition to Hernandez, Dublin’s vice mayor, the race includes state Sen. Bob Wieckowski, Fremont Councilmember Vinnie Bacon, and Dublin Mayor David Haubert.

The poll, conducted by EMC Research between Jan. 13-17 of 401 likely primary voters, showed Wieckowski leading the field with 21 percent support, followed by Hernandez and Bacon at 18 percent. Haubert polled just a tick behind at 17 percent. Meanwhile, 26 percent of voters surveyed said they were undecided.

According to campaign finance reports, Hernandez’s campaign paid $12,000 to EMC Research this month for polling.

ALCO District 1 March primary candidates: Bob Wieckowski, Vinnie Bacon, David Haubert, and Melissa Hernandez.

When potential primary voters were provided with additional biographical information about each candidate in the poll, the order of the field changed, but again failed to reveal a front runner in the race.

Hernandez took the lead with 25 percent support, followed by Bacon at 23 percent. Wieckowski dropped to third with 22 percent, and Haubert remained at 17 percent. Thirteen percent remained undecided.

The results highlight a growing belief among East Bay politicos that the race to replace retiring Alameda County Supervisor Scott Haggerty is a toss-up going into the campaign’s final stretch toward the Mar. 3 primary.

Based on the polling, no candidate appears anywhere close to reaching the simple majority needed to avoid a runoff in November between the top two candidates in the primary.

It also underscores criticism that each of the four candidates may have been too slow to begin their campaigns in earnest and that the presence of a pair of candidates from each half of the district was bound to balkanize the vote.

Wieckowski and Bacon are far more familiar to Fremont voters, while Hernandez and Haubert are known almost exclusively only in Dublin and the Tri-Valley.

Quite telling, the survey showed none of the four candidates were known by more than 45 percent of those polled.