LAST 5 THINGS I THINK ABOUT EAST BAY POLITICS

Rebecca Kaplan is going to sweep into the
AD15 race late and take it.

ELECTION 2018
➤I think its absolutely useless to do an analysis of the 15th Assembly District’s current large field of candidates because the person who will sworn-in December 2018 is even in the race yet. I think sometime early next year, Oakland Councilmember Rebecca Kaplan will enter the race and gain momentum and media attention that nobody in the current field will have attained. There’s a reason why there is so many candidates to replace Tony Thurmond, because every one that has entered the race has failed to move the needle. This only entices others to assess the field and figure they too have as good a shot as anyone else. That ends with Kaplan.

➤I think former Oakland Councilmember Ignacio De La Fuente running for mayor against Libby Schaaf seems akin to a police or fire chief coming back a few years after retirement just to spike their pension. IDLF is going to take it on the chin next year. Why have a monumental beat down on your record? What does he have to gain? If he needs money, I suggest working for Apple. The Holy Grail for improving Siri, I heard, is to create an algorithm that can translate IDLF’s voice into a human language.
➤I think Hayward Councilmember Elisa Marquez should gets some inspiration from her Rep. Eric Swalwell, defy political convention and challenge Mayor Barbara Halliday‘s re-election. Sure, Halliday has been an ally to Marquez, but politics isn’t about friendship, it’s about helping people. Hayward has big, big problems made worse by a group of elected officials who haven’t offered many solutions over the past decade. Halliday has been ineffectual during her first term–but newsflash!–she got elected without having any ideas for improving Hayward. In fact, she said during the 2014 election that Hayward would never be as good as some richer cities in the East Bay… and she STILL won! How does Marquez beat Halliday? By acknowledging 40 percent of the city is Latino and Halliday did nothing to protect them from Trump and ICE agents.

➤I think that next year voters should be asking candidates for city council’s all over the East Bay about what kind of city manager they would hire if the position is ever open during their term. The dirty secret in almost every City Hall in the East Bay is city managers are almost always raging conservatives. Why do many people vote for council candidate based on their perceived political ideology but not the city manager, who runs the day-to-day operations of the city? Maybe the only recent city manager who was not a conservative was former Alameda City Manager John Russo. But he had far different background than most bureaucrats because he was a former Oakland councilmember.
➤I think you should Google my appearance at the Commonwealth Club of California from last December to hear me blurt out a prediction that Rep. Eric Swalwell is going to run for president in 2020. Sure enough, he’s visited Iowa quite a few times this year, especially for a congressman from the East Bay. Through this lens the excessive appearances on cable news makes a lot more sense. If they invite me back (I was a former intern at the Commonwealth Club), I’ll predict he loses.
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