Predictions for 2019… and 2020

My crystal ball for 2018 predicted a “special season” for the Oakland Athletics. You’re welcome, East Bay. But this is East Bay politics, which in my experience, can throw you a heavy diet of curveballs. Here’s what I think might happen in 2019, in addition, to a pair of early 2020 predictions.

SWALWELL RUNS
Accomplishments be damned, Rep. Eric Swalwell is going to run for president. But, why not? Forget the snide questions about what is wrong with his face and a deep suspicion that he wears four inch shoe lifts, I predict he will do well. Granted, he will have no money. Heck, there’s probably four other candidates in California alone that will attract contributors over Swalwell. He’ll have the benefit of low-to-no expectations and will flourish starting during the debates sometime in the mid-year. It might even benefit him greatly to be stuffed in a debate with also-rans. Basically, he’s going to run like he did against Pete Stark. New energy, new voice. I’m young. Blah, blah, blah. But he’s also going to be divisive. Check out how he’s baiting guns rights people on Twitter. However, with success will come scandal. Remember he used to be a young congressional bachelor.

NO DIFF FOR HOUSING PROBLEMS
We’ll continue to run in circles when it comes to a wholesale push for new affordable housing in the East Bay. It will continue to be all talk until even modest housing proposals comes to any city council in the East Bay. After the results of the last election, local officials were shown that backing new housing in places outside of Oakland will get you un-elected. Thing won’t change until public officials show leadership and tell–not ask–residents that we’re all in this together and we need to all do our part.

Oakie-DokieOakland Mayor Libby Schaaf’s new 2019 catchphrase

RETIREMENTS
Some people think Alameda County Supervisor Nate Miley will retire before 2020. I’ll go with the surprise retirement–Supervisor Wilma Chan. I’m more confident about Hayward Assemblymember Bill Quirk hanging them up. Be aware that the 2020 primary is moving from June to early March. So, if any retirements are imminent, expect the announcements coming earlier than normal.

BEST OF THE REST
If Quirk retires, new Hayward Councilmember Aisha Wahab will be the front runner to replace him if she can convince labor. There’s a dearth of competent individuals in the 20th Assembly District. Wahab, as a former Fremont resident, is the only candidate who can link the district’s biggest areas together…

Former Alameda County Supervisor Nadia Lockyer makes periodic and scary reintroductions into our world of politics, even though she now lives in Southern California. I think she’ll post something on Facebook this year that brings equal parts fear and titillation…

Oakland Mayor Libby Schaaf often coins catchphrases that could only make 50-year-old dads proud. I predict “Oakie-Dokie.” …

Even though the truth will later come out that State Sen. Nancy Skinner forgot her iPhone and accidentally stumbled on San Leandro, which is in her district, she will make one other appearance. However, in her mind, she can’t fathom why there is a San Leandro and San Lorenzo right next each other. How confusing!…

Once Swalwell is president, Alameda County Supervisor Scott Haggerty will replace him in Congress. His tenure will last one month after he is caught on a hot mic calling the House speaker Nancy “Peloser.” His chief of staff Shawn Wilson will replace him. He also comes under fire for calling a constituent a “motherf***king Livermore redneck” during a town hall. At another in Dublin, he quips, “There’s a reason why they built the jail in Dublin.”

2020
Ohio Sen. Sherrod Brown will win the California presidential primary in March 2020…

Here’s a twist on the attention Swalwell will get in 2019: It will be East Bay Rep. Ro Khanna, not Swalwell, who is the big winner in the end. That’s because Khanna will be on the list of potential vice president nominees. He won’t get it, though. The course, though, is set for the statesman to later be known as the “East Bay’s Abraham Lincoln.”

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